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Iran: Nuclear Detente in Progress

Published On January 21, 2014 | Central Asia & Middle East

Yesterday, January 20, 2014, the Joint Plan of Action convened by the P5+1 and Iran in Geneva on November 24 2013 entered into full effect. Preliminary technical negotiations between the two parties took place during December 2013 and early January 2014 in Geneva and were successfully concluded on January 12.

It is important to underscore the significance if this event. If all goes well, Iran will slow its nuclear program, effectively freezing it, and begin to dismantle or roll-back some of the most contested nuclear activities, such as the uranium enrichment up to 20%, disassembling some of its centrifuges and the construction of the Arak IR-40 heavy-water reactor.

Also relevant is the complete and unrestricted access given to the IAEA inspectors to all the nuclear sites in Iran, of which most important are Natanz and Fordow. To ensure that no illegal activities are taking place on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran is fulfilling its commitments, the IAEA inspectors will make daily inspections.

In return for these concessions, the P5+1 will proceed to a “limited, temporary and targeted relief” from the international and unilateral sanctions against Iran. This relief includes the suspension of sanctions against the petrochemical sector, against the trade of gold and other precious metals, against the supply of spare parts for the Iranian civil aviation sector and against the trade of oil. In addition, Iran will receive $4.2 billion in eight separate stages throughout the next six months, partly conditioned on the fulfillment of its commitments. The final installment of these payments will be accessible to Iran on the last day of the six months period of implementation. Also, during this interval, the parties will continue to seek a “comprehensive solution” to the Iranian nuclear file.

The ignition of this nuclear détente process shows the commitment of the main parties involved, United States, Iran and Russia, to defuse one of the most dangerous issues threatening the peace in the Middle East region.

It is interesting to note the strong resistance to this process from within the US Congress. The Menendez-Kirk “Nuclear Weapon Free Iran Act of 2013” was introduced in the US Senate on December 20, 2013. Despite the White House and President Obama’s personal threats to veto the bill, it has managed to attract around 60 supporters by mid-January, making it almost impossible to exercise a veto against it. But somehow the rest of the Democrat Senators were persuaded to refrain from supporting this bill, which would have most probably killed the peace process.

Besides the impositions of new sanctions, the bill has all the prerequisites of a road map to war with Iran. In the Section 2(b)(5) of this act, the United States is asked to submit unconditional military, economic and diplomatic support to Israel, if the government of that country believes it is “compelled to take military action in legitimate self-defense against Iran’s nuclear weapon program”. No further comment.

Although there is no direct evidence, it is likely that this bill came to be proposed under the influence of the powerful Israeli lobby in the US Congress represented by the AIPAC. Regarding the Israel fears of a nuclear Iran, it is worth mentioning the recent article by “The Guardian” on January 15, 2014, which shows the hypocrisy of the mainly Western governments regarding the pursuit of nuclear weapons in the Middle East region.

But despite the opponents and detractors of this peace process, Iran has thus far showed only good faith in the negotiations and seems committed to the peaceful resolution of its nuclear issue. This good faith has not gone unnoticed in the Middle East and beyond, as a number of recent regional developments has shown.

First, last week the Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif announced from Moscow an unprecedented deal to exchange Iranian oil for Russian goods. The deal in itself is not something out of the ordinary, given the fact that is the same made with China, but the quantity is worth mentioning: 500,000 barrels per day (bpd). Due to the current sanctions against Iran, its oil sales have dropped to about 1 million bpd and the prospect of increasing them by 50% and adding around $1.5 billion in extra revenue per month.

This deal has all the chances to undermine the unilateral Western sanctions against Iran, should the implementation of the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) fail during the next six months, while Russia may very well become the main purchaser of Iranian oil. Because Russia is one of the world top oil producers, it does not need this oil, but it will most likely resell it, probably in the Asia-Pacific region, where the demand is constantly growing.

In addition to this oil deal, Iran and Russia have also discussed the possibility of constructing new nuclear power plants in Iran. While this is unlikely to happen, even with the breakdown of the JPA, the two countries have sent a strong message that they are opposing the introduction of new sanctions and are committed to the peaceful resolution of the nuclear program issue.

A second trend that has developed in the region is the increased amity between Arab petro-monarchies in the Gulf and Iran. In a recent interview with the BBC, the Sheikh of Dubai has stated that “lifting of sanctions on Iran is good for the region”, and “neighbors should be helped”. The fact that the ruler of such a small member of the Gulf Cooperation Council dares to break ranks and assert himself against the acknowledged position of this Arab group is quite a significant move.

But the Sheikh of Dubai is not the only Arab potentate that seeks better relations with Iran. The Sultan of Oman is also a good friend of the Islamic Republic, that hosted the secret talks between the US and Iranian diplomats during 2013, which have made possible the quick progress of the Geneva Conferences in November last year. In addition to sheltering the talks, Oman has recently tightened its energy ties with Iran by signing a major gas deal, in amount of $60 billion for the next 25 years.

But Iran’s Arab neighbors are not the only countries trying to align themselves to the apparently victorious side of Tehran. Turkey, a long time NATO member and US ally, is pursuing rapprochement with Iran.

Besides the economic aspect of the relations between two countries, Turkey seeks to repair its damaged foreign policy. In this respect, the main dividing element is Syria. After two years of supporting the insurgency against the Assad regime, Turkish government is finally coming to its senses and is realizing that on one hand Assad cannot be removed from power militarily by the rebels, and on the other the alternative to his regime is far, far worse, as was seen by the ascendancy of the al-Qaeda affiliated groups in Syria and Iraq.

The last, but not least, element in the new developments is the formal recognition of Iran’s interests in the region, through the invitation to attend the peace talks on Syria, which are scheduled to commence tomorrow in the Swiss town of Montreux.

Although the United States and the Syrian opposition have expressed their hostility to this act, they do recognize that it is impossible to host such talks without inviting one of the most involved actors in the Syrian civil war. This is probably why the expected Iranian attendance to the conference was “diluted” by inviting countries which have absolutely nothing to do with the Syrian conflict, such as South Africa, Norway, Sweden or Japan.

Despite the ups and downs of the settlement of Iranian nuclear program, the parties seem to be committed enough to it to allow us to predict that short of an external sabotage of the Joint Plan of Action, the process will successfully complete the six months required and has strong chances to be continued beyond July 2014.

 

Notes:

[1] http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/policy/int/iran-5-1-geneva-agreement_2013.htm

[2] http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/01/16/summary-technical-understandings-related-implementation-joint-plan-actio

[3] http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/2014/prn201401.html

[4] https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s1881/text

[5] https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/113/s1881

[6] http://world.time.com/2013/12/09/exclusive-irans-foreign-minister-says-sanctions-would-kill-nuclear-deal/

[7] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/15/truth-israels-secret-nuclear-arsenal

[8] http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304419104579324053944007092

[9] http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/01/16/345984/iran-russia-discuss-new-nplants/

[10] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25751968

[11] http://www.caspianenergy.net/en/oil-and-gas/8398-oman-to-position-self-as-iran-s-gas-broker

[12] http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/01/turkey-gul-syria-policy-reset-erdogan-davutoglu.html

[13] http://world.time.com/2014/01/19/un-iran-invited-to-attend-syrian-peace-conference/

[14] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/news/265260–geneva-ii-participant-list-finalized-un-special-envoy-brahimi-says

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